Modelling human choices: MADeM and decision‑making

Research supported by FAPESP 2015/50122-0 and DFG-GRTK 1740/2. RP and AR are also part of the Research, Innovation and Dissemination Center for Neuromathematics FAPESP grant (2013/07699-0). RP is supported by a FAPESP scholarship (2013/25667-8). ACR is partially supported by a CNPq fellowship (grant 306251/2014-0)

Comparison of geriatric nutritional risk index and creatinine index in short-term mortality prediction in maintenance hemodialysis patients

Background/aim: The aim of this study is to analyze and compare the predictive values of the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) and Creatinine Index (CI) in the short-term mortality of maintenance hemodialysis patients and to determine their best cut-offs. Material and Methods: A total of 169 adult hemodialysis patients were included in this retrospective, cross-sectional, and single-center study. The demographic, clinical, and laboratory data of the month in which the patients were included in the study were obtained from their medical files and computer records. All-cause death was the primary outcome of the study during a 12-month follow-up alter baseline GNRI and CI calculations. Results: The mean age of the study population was 57 +/- 16 years (49.7% were women, 15% were diabetic). During the one-year observation period, 19 (11.24%) of the cases died (8 CV deaths). The optimal cut-off value for GNRI was determined as 104.2 by ROC analysis [AUC = 0.682 +/- 0.06, (95% CI, 0.549-0.815), p = 0.01]. The low GNRI group had a higher risk for all-cause and CV mortality compared to the higher GNRI group (p = 0.02 for both in log-rank test). The optimal sex-specific cut-off was 12.18 mg/kg/day for men [AUC = 0.723 +/- 0.07, (95% CI, 0.574-0.875), p = 0.03] and was 12.08 mg/kg/day for females [AUC = 0.649 +/- 0.13, (95% CI, 0.384- 0.914), p = 0.01]. Patients with lower sex-specific CI values had higher all-cause and CV mortality (p = 0.001 and p = 0.009 in log-rank test, respectively). In multivariate cox models, both GNRI [HR = 4.904 (% 95 CI, 1.77-13.56), p = 0.002] and sex-specific CI [HR = 5.1 (95% CI, 1.38-18.9), p = 0.01] predicted all-cause mortality. The association of GNRI with CV was lost [HR = 2.6 (CI 95%, 0.54-13.455), p = 0.22], but low CI had a very strong association with CV mortality [HR = 11.48 (CI 95%, 1.25 -104), p = 0.03]. Conclusion: In hemodialysis patients, GNRI and CI have similar powers in predicting all-cause short-term mortality. The association of CI with all-cause death depends on gender. On the other hand, sex-specific CI predicts CV mortality better than GNRI